Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#1
i tried calculating a little bit and this's what i got for total populations
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-let's assume the average pop. per country is 2 mil.
 
-considering medieval countries 're smaller than modern ones, and there're 200 small and big nowadays
 assuming the fantasy world we're talking about 're as big as Earth, with same ratio of mountains, oceans, etc. 
then it'd be around 300 countries (virtually)

it means 600 mil. for the total pop. 
-with elf, dwarf, dragon, demon races, etc. being less fertile than human, but goblin(let's say goblins is not 'monsters' but 1 of the race like the others) being more of 'breeding machines' than humans, let's make it ~500 mil.
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-considering there're healing magic, meaning fewer 'stupid' casualties, let's make it 550 mil.
-assuming that world is more 'warmonging', more 'wild' than Earth, let's make it 450 mil.
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realistically, 1k years is a bit long for an individual, magic or not

-if a race can live as long as 1k years, and the amount of time and the pace at which, all the civilizations rise, developped 're similar to Earth, then it's only ~60 generations odd since the age of stone until they weilding steel sword at each other, so i'd say at most, 500 years is 'fantasy enough, that would increase it up to ~130 generations
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-as there're many different races, there may actually be fewer nations, or at least countries of the same races will be territorically bunched up with the others (maybe around 160-200) 
-though for the same reason, there could be more, at least as clans, tribes, etc. (goblin tribes, centaur clans, and whatnot)
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anyway, let's settle with 450 mil. pop. with 200 countries (from small independent tribes to big ass empires) for now until someone get nicer numbers  

what's the most 'suitable' ratios for a fantasy-medieval world? ratios such as mage:pop, elf:dwarf:human:goblin:dragon:etc. for example

-with how 'rare' mages 're as far as people describe/imagine/set for their fictions, i'd say 1:2-3k (up to 5k) 's more realistic than 1:1k
since with an average size human kingdom (2 mil.), 1:1k 'd mean 2000
-with how the fictions often get based off countries like France, England, etc. which's up to 15 mil. pop (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_demography), 1:1k 'd mean 15k mages, A LOT!
and even if u consider aging and the like, it'd still be around ~7k 'standing mages'
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the pop. of dragons should be rather low, with how strong they're (magically+physically), it'd be off balanced if there're too many of them, unless if they feed on sun light or mana or whatever like solar panels, there should still be numerous enough to not get into inbreeding problems of course (unless, again, if they magically don't have problem with it)

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i keep on reading fictions that depict mages 're so rare, but there always seems to be mages everywhere

somehow magic schools/academies 're also full of royalties or nobles' children and really lack commoner ones eventhough it supposes to be random

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#3
as i said, assuming the ratio of land mass n' the ratio of types of lands is the same or similar to Earth
with the whole planet of same size as Earth

basically, living in a land full of Dinosaurs and everything is big, living in modern days and everything is mall (with whales as exception - they're aquatic anyway)

there're thousands upon thousands of nuclearheads on Earth nowadays but the whole world's yet to be blowed up because of all the politics, restrictions, etc.

so similarly, if there're mages in another world, either there're a lot of restrictions, or anything, to prevent the whole world to get blowed up, which, a medieval-society/government-structure based world likely lacks, or, there's got to be a sensible population of mages and sensible powerscale

either there're very few of them, pretty like in the 'old-school' fantasy fictions, maybe to the level of them being considered Gods
or there're a lot of them, so that the power balance get saturated, maybe everyone being able to light a torch or fill a bucket of water for example
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similarly with the ratio of populations by races, too many dragons and u have an Earth >65 mil. years ago, or maybe slightly afterward, too many humans, then well, u have another medieval Earth, full of humans and nothing else, though with magics of course
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with magic's presence, especially with the case of Mages being powerful but rare, the world will revolve heavily around magics and as such, mages, it'd be likely the society 'll be 'ruled' by magics n' mages, instead of noblities or royalties, something like a 'Magedom' or 'Magicracy', etc. xD
if the population of Mages is rare but not rare enough that they replace kings, popes and the like, they'd still be important enough that factions, houses, etc. still flock around and want to have them under services and under controls, which means, in this case, u'd be very unlikely seeing stuff like 'freelance' mages running around playing adventurers like all those fictions u may come across throughout NU or RRL
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unless mages 're rare enough and powerful enough to be the ruling class instead of any other faction like nobilities or royalties, then they'll be most likely conscripted into military services, or any kind of heavy controls and monitorings
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if mages 're not rare then for the setting to work, mages overall 'd be less powerful

as a result, powerful mages'd still be rare and being under controls, meanwhile 'average' mages, which is pretty much everyone else, 'd be of no important, and all those mages that running around playing adventurers'd not be 'mages' afterall because if everyone is mages, then no one, except for the mages that standouts, 'd be considered mage anymore (reverse back to the last point) xD

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#4
Adventurer is not a realistic occupation anyway. Organized adventurer guild is even more unrealistic. Administration and infrastructure for such guild would be huge, especially in those with cards and database(or file cabinets) and stuff.

The ratio of races and classes can varies by a lot of reasons. Maybe mages are everywhere or nowhere to be seen. Maybe they were hunted because people got tired of their snobby attitude or they genocided those commoners because mage-supremacist agenda.

Instead of finding the ratio, we should discuss the factor which affect those numbers.

Race ratio depends on racial traits, which is up for the author to decide. The author should always factor in the geopolitical relation and cultural background and effects of each races though. Maybe elf like woods beecause they can link mana to it or something and they hate dwarves because those short beared bears keep cutting woods to feed their forges.

Mages ratio also depends on the author. However, more powerful being in the world meant others will have harder time suppress them. You could not oppress mages when they have enough numbers to fight off the army. Monsters won't be a problem if there are many people capable of fending them. Number of mages also affect the value of each mage. Mage could be cheap in world with many mages, or expensive in world with less.

Population depends on resources and safety of the land. You can't grow muuch population if people are hungry and there are always wars going on.

And number of nobles also depends on resources and population. Nobles need land to rule and people to tax. Even unlanded noble get their money from their lord, which is obviously from tax.

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#5
Why do you replace "and" with "n'"? I understand it in speech, but I've never seen people type out their accents before. Mannerisms, yes - specific ways of wording things, this right here is one - but accents, no.

First of all, the reason why nobles are so often mages is that magic is frequently associated with lineage - the descendants of mages are more likely to be mages, and depending on how powerful mages are, noble houses are more likely to either be founded by mages, or have mage blood bred into them. The other reason might be teaching mages can be expensive - books, material requirements for spells, and time - which many non-nobles will not have access to.

In terms of population, you also have to consider how readily available food is. More food means bigger animals. Bigger animals means more food for larger carnivores. If you have magic which can provide energy too (e.g. dragons may be able to "feed" by consuming magic energy instead of eating), you get completely different food chains and potentially much larger animals. More food and more fertile ground also makes for a larger sustainable population.

What I really want to say about your population calculations, though, is that you shouldn't start from the Medieval era and add or subtract numbers. Those estimates are probably going to be inaccurate already, and your additions and subtractions aren't what's needed to make a correct figure. Instead, look at details of the world, the amount of food they can produce, and try and calculate a number from there.
Or just come up with a number that feels about right, that's what most people probably do and what they'll be willing to accept.
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RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#6
'mlovolm' pid='827502' dateline='1503972870' Wrote: i tried calculating a little bit and this's what i got for total populations
-------------------------
-let's assume the average pop. per country is 2 mil.
 
-considering medieval countries 're smaller than modern ones, and there're 200 small and big nowadays
 assuming the fantasy world we're talking about 're as big as Earth, with same ratio of mountains, oceans, etc. 
then it'd be around 300 countries (virtually)

it means 600 mil. for the total pop. 
-with elf, dwarf, dragon, demon races, etc. being less fertile than human, but goblin(let's say goblins is not 'monsters' but 1 of the race like the others) being more of 'breeding machines' than humans, let's make it ~500 mil.
---------------------------
-considering there're healing magic, meaning fewer 'stupid' casualties, let's make it 550 mil.
-assuming that world is more 'warmonging', more 'wild' than Earth, let's make it 450 mil.
---------------------------
realistically, 1k years is a bit long for an individual, magic or not

-if a race can live as long as 1k years, and the amount of time and the pace at which, all the civilizations rise, developped 're similar to Earth, then it's only ~60 generations odd since the age of stone until they weilding steel sword at each other, so i'd say at most, 500 years is 'fantasy enough, that would increase it up to ~130 generations
-----------------------------
-as there're many different races, there may actually be fewer nations, or at least countries of the same races will be territorically bunched up with the others (maybe around 160-200) 
-though for the same reason, there could be more, at least as clans, tribes, etc. (goblin tribes, centaur clans, and whatnot)
-----------------------------
anyway, let's settle with 450 mil. pop. with 200 countries (from small independent tribes to big ass empires) for now until someone get nicer numbers  

what's the most 'suitable' ratios for a fantasy-medieval world? ratios such as mage:pop, elf:dwarf:human:goblin:dragon:etc. for example

-with how 'rare' mages 're as far as people describe/imagine/set for their fictions, i'd say 1:2-3k (up to 5k) 's more realistic than 1:1k
since with an average size human kingdom (2 mil.), 1:1k 'd mean 2000
-with how the fictions often get based off countries like France, England, etc. which's up to 15 mil. pop (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_demography), 1:1k 'd mean 15k mages, A LOT!
and even if u consider aging and the like, it'd still be around ~7k 'standing mages'
--------------------------
the pop. of dragons should be rather low, with how strong they're (magically+physically), it'd be off balanced if there're too many of them, unless if they feed on sun light or mana or whatever like solar panels, there should still be numerous enough to not get into inbreeding problems of course (unless, again, if they magically don't have problem with it)

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i keep on reading fictions that depict mages 're so rare, but there always seems to be mages everywhere

somehow magic schools/academies 're also full of royalties or nobles' children and really lack commoner ones eventhough it supposes to be random

Some assumptions need to be made to properly respond. Even then, it is a difficult question to answer.

I'll assume the world is roughly the same size as Earth, with equivalent continuous land area. If so, 200 nations in a pre-industrial society is a rather low estimate. Do not forget, modern countries like the U.S., Russia and China could be considered vast land empires. There have been historically larger entities but those were rare. In our own world, there was also a great deal of lawlessness over large areas, with borders shifting as constantly as the next warlord could carve out a slice of territory...if borders existed at all. It was entirely possible for the inhabitants of some regions to become part of various different "countries" within their lifetimes, sometimes without knowing that anything had changed.

Different sapient species existing simultaneously has always been a problem I had with fantasy. Some fictions have them by the dozens, which strains credulity. The fossil record strongly suggests, and it is broadly believed, that there were once three proto-human species sharing a relatively small living area in prehistoric times. That being the case, were are the other two types today? Let's just say that our ancestors won the competition and leave it at that.


There is no compelling reason for human or elven nations to dominate any multi-species terrain, and many reasons why fast breeders would ultimately annihilate all others, magic or not. Tolkien's work led to an explosion of elves throughout fiction, but people seem to forget that his elves were a slowly failing breed with a stagnant culture. Cultures with lower tech weapons can and have defeated armies and expeditions with more powerful weapons. It is also entirely possible for species to be other than "grouped together."

From what is your work derived? If it roughly based on RPGs or Tolkien, the elven and dwarvish populations are statistically irrelevant. Otherwise, it could be whatever you wish. How fast is "fast-breeding." Is it explosive? Just higher than average with low gestation periods? Greater incidence of twins or other multiples? What are all these people eating? Starvation was a major global killer in pre-industrial societies. Healing magic probably isn't that good to eat.

As for magic, what is it's basis? Is it genetic? If so, it would become increasingly more common unless mages are outcasts. The average family in an agrarian culture would be far more likely to marry their daughters off to a wizard than to the farmer next door. If magic was real, even a "low" magic setting would have people eager to add that kind of power to their family or clan.

If magic isn't genetic, what restricts anyone from learning it?

Dragons just bother the hell out of me. The unintelligent version would probably mostly starve after wiping out broad swathes of wildlife. The super smart spell casting versions should just be in charge. Period. You should come up with a reason why not, if these are the dragons you are using.

These are a very few of the things you have to consider if you want "realistic" fantasy. Most published authors resolve these questions through a literary practice I call "ignoring them." Perhaps they don't consider it at all. In the end, my answer is: do what you want. Whatever it takes to get your story going and tell the tale you want to tell. At the end of the day, fantasy really doesn't make any rational sense at all. I am saying this as an actual fan of fantasy, though I do tend to prefer Joe Abercrombie, Mark Lawrence and other authors who are rather bleak. Just be sure that your setting at least makes some sense in your own mind.

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#7
How I see it, in a fiction it's up to the author to setup the rules and decide what real life phenomenon can be bent and how much.

In the end, you can get away with anything as long as you don't break the Willing Suspension of Disbelief of your target audience.

In an Hard Sci-Fi setting your audience might roast you for getting the energy density of chemical fuel wrong. But in a looser fantasy setting, I feel like you can get away with schools full of noble mages. The audience will just think: "Ah. So in this world there is an accademy full of noble mages. Cool."
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RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#8
All good points, however I strongly recommend using actual historical sources for study and extrapolating from that, since the hypothetical world you've created, while an interesting model, is not representative across the fantasy genre. Factors such as abnormal planet shape (Think Ringworld), Recent past cataclysmic events that wipe out large regions, and varying technological and fantasy levels can vastly influence your population demographic distribution.

One topic that you haven't mentioned that should be added to the discussion is that of the ethnic and linguistic variation among local races and population. Look at a dialect map of dark age France and you'll see a huge variety of culturally and linguistically distinct regions.

Another important factor in population distribution is economy. What are the trade routes and mediums of exchange, and can the local geography support said populations using plausible farming techniques?

It really comes down to how much world building you want to do. You can spend an infinite amount of time working on your imaginary world, crafting every detail. If you are planning on writing the next Wheel of Time then you should absolutely do that. Tolkien spent a decade world-building before he even started writing Lord of the Rings. That being said, there eventually comes a matter of practicality. If you're a new author trying to write a practice novel you're better off spending your time working on new chapters than pouring endlessly creating ethno-linguistic charts for the inhabitants of long destroyed kingdoms.

Keep in mind, that while extensive worldbuilding is a tool for immersion, it is only one tool in your toolbox. Demographics are not all-important. Planetos, the world that contains George RR Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series (Game of Thrones on HBO), while very rich in history, is relatively poorly designed in terms of demographics. He still sells a lot of books.

Sources you may be interested in:

http://www222.pair.com/sjohn/blueroom/demog.htm

https://medium.com/migration-issues/notes-on-medieval-population-geography-fd062449364f

http://thedockyards.com/linguistic-maps-of-europe/

https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=l3x6_C5wsQIC&oi=fnd&pg=PA1&dq=Medieval+economy&ots=cavA6vbtpw&sig=nWUEzgdD_PYvt650IhSFsb9X4JQ#v=onepage&q=Medieval%20economy&f=false

https://www.amazon.com/Plantagenets-Warrior-Kings-Queens-England-ebook/dp/B008EKMBJG/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1505964447&sr=1-3&keywords=medieval+warfare

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#9
I think about this stuff so much but I'm way too lazy to do the research to find actual realistic population distributions and whatnot. And besides fantasy worlds are so ...fantastical... in the first place, it makes trying to fine "realistic" statistics feel to be a kind of fools errand. I mean how do you account for the ridiculous absurdities that show up in fantasy stories without copious use of handwaving and oversimplification?

No one wants to read about how the hero travels fifty miles down the road and the new regional dialect was completely incomprehensible to him.

Or how the weird animal population of eighteen different species of apex predator is actually completely impossible and so they all starved and died.

Or you know "Class Warfare: Mage Edition" as you would have to title any book that tried to tackle that bed of thorns.

tl:dr: just handwave everything unless you want to do *a lot* of research
~writing is hard~

RE: Fantasy-Medieval Demography

#10
Cool thread. I agree about the mages, they'd have to be very valuable assets for countries and their military, if not outright leading said countries, and if there's plenty of them wandering the towns and roads, then the social hierarchy should take it into account.

For everything else, just like sinkingship said, there's no need to go in too much detail. Just showing a few examples of how the world makes sense should be enough. For instance, explain how town X of N inhabitants was built around a river, next to a forest with plentiful game, and how the population has been growing and the economy becoming prosperous ever since the local lordling went to visit the duke of Y and traded his daughter blessed with magical affinity for land or road rights through the duchy of Y, or whatever. That's it, no real need to do the same for every village the hero visits if it's not relevant. Give a few bits of realistic information about places, cultures and populations here and now, then imply that the rest of the world also makes sense. And if it obviously doesn't, there should be a reason, even if it's just handwaved and then never explained. Could be magic, could even be a plot twist.

Personally, I always avoid numbers when I can do without them. Population and size of towns, costs, length of the roads, I try not to give precise numbers by fear of inconsistencies. But still, I think aiming for a healthy amount of historical realism in a fantasy world is always worth the trouble, especially when said world is obviously inspired by medieval europe. Helps the fantasy part stand out as it should.